A Critical Assessment of the South African Intelligence Agency

Abstract

This article analyses the state of the intelligence community (IC) in the South African context to determine whether the IC is a failure or whether it is a total disaster. Due to a failed, insufficient intelligence system, the current world order has been severely disrupted by two wars. In this regard, the focus is in particular on the situation in the Middle East, where Israel and the Palestinian group HAMAS are currently involved in a war. According to a Reuters report (Nakhoul & Saul, 2023), Israel was caught off guard by the HAMAS attack on 7 October 2023, and several people have died since then. These types of violent incidents recall the violent riots/protests in South Africa in July 2021, where the severe action of the people involved overpowered the South African Police Service (SAPS) and South African intelligence services. These protest actions / riots inflicted billions of rand in infrastructure damage, and hundreds of people died. The Expert Panel, appointed by the President of South Africa in July 2021, commented as follows on this protest action: “The question, many argue, is not if and whether more unrest and violence will occur, but when it will occur.” (Presidency, 2021) A conceptualised intelligence risk management framework (IRMF) is used to analyse the IC of South Africa, with a specific focus on the State Security Agency (SSA). The article aims to explore, describe, and analyse the status and activities from a democratically based framework. Furthermore, the article aims to evaluate the failures of the past decades and draw conclusion regarding the current status of intelligence agencies or services in South Africa. This analysis will determine whether the IC is ready and capable of addressing these types of threats and risks in the future.

Opsomming
Hierdie artikel ontleed die stand van die intelligensiegemeenskap (IM) in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks om te bepaal of die intelligensiegemeenskap ʼn mislukking of ʼn volslae ramp is. Vanweë ʼn mislukte, ondoeltreffende intelligensiestelsel is die wêreldorde deur twee onlangse oorloë ontwrig. In hierdie verband is die fokus veral gerig op die situasie in die Midde-Ooste, waar Israel en die Palestynse groep HAMAS tans in ’n oorlog gewikkel is. Volgens ʼn Reuters-verslag (Nakhoul & Saul, 2023) is Israel onkant betrap deur die HAMAS-aanval op 7 Oktober 2023, en sedertdien het duisende mense gesterf. Hierdie soort gewelddadige voorvalle herinner aan die gewelddadige onluste/protesaksies in Suid-Afrika gedurende Julie 2021, waartydens die ernstige protesoptrede van die betrokke mense die Suid-Afrikaanse Polisiediens (SAPD) en Suid-Afrikaanse intelligensiedienste oorweldig het. Hierdie protesoptrede het infrastruktuur ter waarde van miljarde rande beskadig, en honderde mense het gesterf. Die Deskundige Paneel, wat in Julie 2021 deur die President van Suid-Afrika aangestel is, het soos volg kommentaar gelewer op sodanige protesaksie: “Die vraag, betoog baie, is nie óf en ás onlus en geweld weer sal voorkom nie, maar wánneer dit sal voorkom.” (Presidency, 2021) ʼn Gekonseptualiseerde intelligensie-risikobestuursraamwerk (IRBR) word gebruik om die intelligensiegemeenskap te ontleed, met spesifieke toespitsing op die Staatsveiligheidsagentskap (SVA). Die artikel beoog om die stand en aktiwiteite vanuit ʼn demokraties gebaseerde raamwerk te verken, te beskryf en te ontleed. Voorts het die artikel ook ten doel om die mislukkings oor die afgelope dekades te evalueer en tot ʼn gevolgtrekking oor die stand van die intelligensie-agentskappe/-dienste in Suid-Afrika te kom. Hierdie ontleding sal aandui of die intelligensiegemeenskap (IG) gereed en in staat is om hierdie tipe bedreigings en risiko’s in die toekoms te hanteer.

https://doi.org/10.19108/KOERS.90.1.2640