Needs and skills for a national manpower force

Needs and skills for a national manpower force South A frica has been isolated from external business competition fo r many years. The political changes under way in the Republic are bringing with them the reality o f international competition from world class players. In order to compete and survive, more attention will have to be devoted to the composition and quality o f the South African work force. Education needs to be made more relevant to employment in terms o f the skills required by the modern economic society. The workers o f tomorrow will require a dif­ feren t and more sophisticated knowledge and skills portfolio than the wor­ kers o f today and yesterday. A n analysis o f the needs and skills fo r a natio­ nal manpower force is therefore appropriate.


Introduction
The political changes now under way in South Africa will have far-reaching im plications for business in general and for the work force in particular.The removal of sanctions will open world markets to South African goods and services.At the same time, foreign firms will want a slice o f this market.In other words, the information and technological revolution is changing the world of work on a macro scale.Capitalism is rampant, communism has collapsed, old regimes are falling and a new economic order is being forged.All over the world countries are reviewing their trade policies, restructuring their industries, and competition among nations and amongst companies is drastically increasing.South Africa's businesses and labour force have been isolated from external competition for many years and must now face up to the realities of international competition from world-class players (Kaljee, 1989:487).
Many local businesses have had a relatively easy time as cosy private arrange ments and government protection have made it possible for them to set their own standards.In order to produce high-quality goods on a competitive basis, and to render outstanding services, more devotion is needed to the composition and quality of our work force.Education will have to be made more relevant to em ployment in order to improve the quality o f the work force o f South Africa (Coetzee, 1992:295).

T he present skills m arket in South A frica
In the modem economic society it is generally accepted that the phrase la b o u r m a rk et should be changed to sk ills m a rket and that the workers o f tomorrow will require a different and more sophisticated knowledge and skills portfolio than the workers o f today and yesterday.
The mix of skills that the skills market of tomorrow will require is virtually im possible to predict as it is affected by complex factors such as rapidly changing technologies, business strategies, politics, economic policy and the quality of the educational system.It will also be affected by legislation, work ethics, changing standards o f living and the needs o f the workers themselves (Fowler & Karstens, 1991:1).
The skills market is a dynamic market and the availability of skills can be directly linked to changes in outputs of universities, technikons, technical colleges, schools, training centres, migration, renumeration packages for skills, image of the respective professions, and continuous training efforts of employers (Du Preez, 1988:1).The ideal mix of skills for South Africa will require a composi tion that o p tim a lly stim u la tes a n d d e ve lo p s the resources and potential o f the country, and this mix will be influenced and driven by the needs o f the employers (Guthrie-Morse, 1988:30).
In Table I the general composition of South Africa's work force is shown in terms of high-, medium-and low-level manpower and the estimated needs by the year 2000 are also indicated.Although this estimate was made when sanctions were still being applied, the anticipated upswing in the economy will create an even higher demand for the welltrained in the nineties.T able I indicates the anticipated shortage o f high-level manpower that increased over the last two decades and the oversupply o f medium-level manpower over the same period.High-level manpower is required for the technological development o f a country.

T ab le 1
The state of the labour market in 1980 and a forecast for the year 2000

T he im p erative o f continuous education
A problem complicating the South African labour situation is that of a generation of disadvantaged youths who are functionally illiterate and do not possess the basic skills needed to become productive, self-supporting members of society.
There is a risk of creating a permanent underclass, a group of people who are not just unemployed but also unemployable.For a balanced, dynamic work force the focus should be on basic education.Primary and secondary schooling must im prove, giving the youth of South Africa the education they need for a productive and rewarding role within the work force.
The ideal of continuing education must become a reality.Every industry and eve ry union should be involved in programmes to train, retrain and upgrade the skills o f workers.It is imperative that the disadvantaged youth be offered the oppor tunity, through continuous education and training within industry (and the formal system o f education), not only to improve their working skills but also to qualify for promotion to more senior positions.Wider recognition by educational institu tions o f qualifications obtained in industry and a freer flow o f students between training boards and the formal educational system could do much to provide moti vation to study and to improve the skills mix in the work force.Such a free flow of students between continuous training centres and institutions outside the formal educational system on the one hand and the formal education system on the other hand would indeed be the equilibrating factor between an unskilled, low-level work force and a highly skilled, balanced work force.

Engineering
In 1990 the South African Council for Professional Engineers conducted an inves tigation into high-level manpower requirements in engineering in South Africa (Dutkiewicz, 1990).
The investigation showed that South Africa was producing approximately thirty per cent less engineering graduates than the minimum required for adequate long term economic growth.Using the estimates of the shortage of engineers and the 'ideal' ratio o f 1:3 for engineers and technicians, the shortage of qualified techni cians was even more alarming.(Dutkiewicz, 1990) (The totals for 1995 and 2000 were estimated using a GDP growth rate of 4% per annum.)

M anagem ent training
Acute shortages in technical manpower can be expected in the work force in fu ture.A shortage o f more than 200 000 technically trained people is expected by the year 2000.In 1989 23 000 artisans were trained, while between 100 000 and 150 000 should have been in training (Nel & Nel, 1990:30).
In surveys conducted in 1988 it was found that the manager to worker ratio in South Africa was 1:60.If the current trends continue, this ratio will deteriorate to 1:72 by 1995 and 1:110 by the year 2000 (Van Rooyen, 1991).The economic mix of South Africa should include one manager for every 25 workers.Similar studies in the United States found a ratio of one to six while Japan's ratio is one to ten (Van Rooyen, 1991).
It is clear that South Africa is not training sufficient managers and hence is not empowering its work force to take over managerial tasks at lower levels within the organisation.Current estimates are that there will be more than 200 000 managerial vacancies by the year 2000 (Van Rooyen, 1991).

High-tech information and service
Between now and the year 2000, almost all new jobs will be in high technology, information and services, as opposed to the goods production of the past.The American Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data covering industry employment over a longer period -between 1960 and 1995 -show a fairly steady increase in service-producing industry employment, while growth in the goods production employment is virtually nonexistent (Jones, 1987/88:21).
The Hudson Institute (Table 3) forecasts that between 1984 and 2000 there will be net declines in manufacturing, mining and agricultural employment, with all new jobs in non-goods producing industries, for example, computing, marketing, health and engineering.During the same period there will be a projected de crease of 400 000 skilled and unskilled production jobs (Jones, 1987/88:21).
A detailed analysis of the reading, writing and vocabulary skills needed for the jobs of the future shows a direct correlation between the level o f skills required and the growth rate of new jobs.Table 3 shows, for example, that the jobs with the highest growth rate require post-secondary education and higher order think ing skills.
Against the background of the present state of the South African labour market it is evident that South Africa will need more engineers, more scientists and techno logists, many more technicians, more experts in advanced information systems, more managers, more entrepreneurs and a solid base of functionally literate workers equipped with relevant work ethics and basic skills.

C h an gin g skills needs o f the labou r m arket
Apart from basic job skills there is also a definite change in the work force as far as other or job-related skills are concerned.As the demand and pay for higher and better trained workers increase, so do the expectations and standards concerning job-related skills.This is a new dimension emerging in career and vocational education -and in future much more attention will have to be devoted to the development of these job related skills.Many employers consider these skills more important than any other academic or vocational qualifications related to the job.The results o f an unpublished study done at Technikon Pretoria by Fowler and Karstens (1991:8) on the skills needs o f the South African labour market are shown in Table 4. (See Fowler and Karstens, 1991:8.)From this analysis it can be deduced that South African employers place a high premium on reliability as an important quality in the work place.This very quality also received the highest rating in a similar study (see

C on clu din g rem arks
In many countries the mismatch between jobs being created and the skills of those seeking them will continue to grow.This is the challenge for South Africa.South Africa has one o f the best education and training infrastructures in Africa, with an increasing output of skilled and well-qualified people each year.In order, however, to compete internationally, education will have to become more relevant in terms o f quality and skills taught.
Table 2 shows the actual number of engineers and technicians who qualified in 1988 in relation to the desired numbers.

Table 2 N
um ber of engineers and technicians required to graduate per year

TABLE 3 Estimates of the percentage change in selected occupations in the USA
(The Hudson Institute./«Jones,1987:23.)

Table 5 )
conducted by the Polytechnic of W ales' Recruitment and Training Research Unit.Qualities that also received a high rating in this investigation are willingness to learn and punctuality(Winiarski-Jones, 1987:17).It appears from the findings of both the Technikon study and the Wales' study that employers, generally, expect more from students' training than the mere acquiring of standard technical abilities.There seems to be a need for a more en during type o f education to facilitate changes in the students personality for the duration o f his career.The need for education, together with the necessary aca demic and practical skills, appears to be especially for internalised values such as reliability, perseverance, self-motivation and willingness to learn.Employers indicate a higher preference for these qualities in workers than, for example, ex ternal factors such as qualifications, experience, academic results and dress sense.